News & Insights

Global Global economic activity remains strong but less balanced than earlier this year due to a reduced synchronisation of growth rates across the developed world. According to RMB Global Markets, geopolitical risks have intensified with the possibility of a full-blown trade war threatening to derail global growth. We’ve reported before that this is far from a certainty, but President Trumps timely and untimely tweets about trade tariffs have certainly not helped to boost market sentiment. A slowdown in Chinese demand has had a knock-on effect on commodity price growth (which has slowed) and...

International  The pace of global growth is still encouraging after a disappointing first quarter in which several prominent developed economies slowed. The United States, buoyed by sizeable tax cuts and a considerable increase in government spending, was the obvious outlier when it registered above-trend growth in the first quarter, while some of its developed market peers, notably Japan and the Eurozone, struggled to muster productivity gains. During his 2016 election campaign, Donald Trump promised voters a return to economic growth of 4% ahead of US inflation, and it seems that the...

Global The trade war between the United States and its trading partners (mainly China and the European Union) has escalated in recent weeks and has been dominating headlines around the world. It has also caused increased volatility in global markets as investors try to digest the effect of the tariffs announced by the various role players on company valuations. In our commentary at the end of this month’s newsletter, we will take a closer look at how this has unfolded so far and what it could mean for investors. Most economic indicators show that the global economy is still in an expansionary...

Global The United States economy is well placed to continue its expansion with acceleration in growth possible over the rest of the year. Consumer spending appears underpinned by the strong labour market and solid medium-term gains in housing and stocks and it could pick up after a somewhat subdued first quarter. There are some headwinds, notably the recent rise in energy prices, but these may be offset by the potential stimulus from the package of tax cuts, whose effects could become visible later in the year. There are also encouraging signs that the Federal Reserve seems willing to look...

Global The moderation in growth across advanced economies in the first quarter of 2018 suggests that global economic growth could be less robust than anticipated this year, though the downturn is unlikely to be prolonged. Compared to the last quarter of 2017, both the Eurozone (0.4%) and the United Kingdom (0.1%) grew at a pedestrian pace. Underlying conditions in these two regions, however, remain firm, indicating that the slowdown is temporary. Global PMI figures for April point to a recovery in the second quarter of this year as manufacturing conditions improved across the board. Fairly...

Global The Trump administration’s move to impose tariffs on the import of various goods from China cannot yet be described as a trade war, but the first punches in this scuffle has certainly introduced additional volatility in global markets. For now, real sector data aligns broadly with stable global growth for 2018. The outlook for 2019 is less assured, as concerns of overheating in the United States continue to weigh on consensus forecasts and speculation mounts of a full-blown stand-off between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping. Apparent spare capacity in the Eurozone and Japan’s labour markets...