News & Insights

Global According to the latest International Monetary Fund (IMF) bi-annual World Economic Outlook, the strong global economic expansion of 2017 and 2018 slowed notably in the second half of last year. It reflects a confluence of factors affecting the major economies around the world. China’s growth declined following a combination of needed regulatory tightening to rein in shadow banking and an increase in trade tensions with the United States. The Euro area economy lost more momentum than expected as consumer and business confidence weakened and car production in Germany was disrupted by the...

Global Despite the dim message from current economic data, particularly in Europe, and the recent inversion of the short end of the US Treasury curve, global growth is likely to reaccelerate in the second half of 2019, according to a recent report from BCA Research. Their analysis of global indicators shows that leading industrial, sentiment and even some trade indicators have troughed. Credit growth, a key lubricant of growth momentum in the globally relevant sectors of China’s economy, is no longer decelerating, and is poised to boost global trade in the second half of the year.  Speaking...

Global The International Monetary Fund’s latest World Economic Outlook Update points to a weakening global expansion this year. Global growth for 2018 is estimated at 3.7% despite weaker performance in some economies, notably Europe and Asia. The global economy is projected to grow at 3.5% in 2019 and 3.6% in 2020. The global growth forecast for 2019 and 2020 had already been revised downward before, partly because of the negative effects of tariff increases enacted in the United States and China last year. The further downward revision in part reflects carry over from softer momentum in the...

2018, will be marked down by most as a tough year for investment markets. Being conservatively positioned and not losing serious money was the name of the game; to this point global equities were hit hard recently – the S&P500 for example, declined a significant 15% between December 1st and the 26th alone).  In 2018, the South African equity market (as measured by the FTSE/JSE All Share Index) reached a peak of 61 777 versus a low of 50 033 points. The index ended 2018 down 8.5%, its first negative calendar year since the 2008 crisis.    After adjusting for inflation,...

Global Despite what may be suggested by the turmoil in investment markets, not much has happened to slow down the synchronised global recovery that we’ve seen through most of 2017 and 2018. The United States (US), in particular, keeps on producing solid economic growth. According to Torsten Slok (Chief International Economist of Deutsche Bank), there is a narrative in markets which compete with this view and has very different investment implications. The first view is that economic growth is strong and earnings are good, and the consensus expects this to continue as the tailwind from President...

Global The global economy remains in a very healthy position as it continues to grow at an annualised real growth rate of roughly 3.5%. Unemployment rates continue to fall across the developed world, with consistent job gains in the United States and Eurozone. Despite most developed markets being near full employment, wage increases are expected to be modest over the next 18 months. Because of the implementation of trade tariffs (and the talk of much more), this is not quite the growth sweet spot we had in 2017. It however remains a very favourable environment for global economic expansion...