News & Insights

Economic & Market Overview – November 2018

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Global Despite what may be suggested by the turmoil in investment markets, not much has happened to slow down the synchronised global recovery that we’ve seen through most of 2017 and 2018. The United States (US), in particular, keeps on producing solid economic growth. According to Torsten Slok (Chief International Economist of Deutsche Bank), there is a narrative in markets which compete with this view and has very different investment implications. The first view is that economic growth is strong and earnings are good, and the consensus expects this to continue as the tailwind from President...

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Economic & Market Overview – October 2018

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Global The global economy remains in a very healthy position as it continues to grow at an annualised real growth rate of roughly 3.5%. Unemployment rates continue to fall across the developed world, with consistent job gains in the United States and Eurozone. Despite most developed markets being near full employment, wage increases are expected to be modest over the next 18 months. Because of the implementation of trade tariffs (and the talk of much more), this is not quite the growth sweet spot we had in 2017. It however remains a very favourable environment for global economic expansion...

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Economic & Market Commentary – September 2018

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Global Global economic activity remains strong but less balanced than earlier this year due to a reduced synchronisation of growth rates across the developed world. According to RMB Global Markets, geopolitical risks have intensified with the possibility of a full-blown trade war threatening to derail global growth. We’ve reported before that this is far from a certainty, but President Trumps timely and untimely tweets about trade tariffs have certainly not helped to boost market sentiment. A slowdown in Chinese demand has had a knock-on effect on commodity price growth (which has slowed) and...

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Economic & Market Overview – August 2018

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International  The pace of global growth is still encouraging after a disappointing first quarter in which several prominent developed economies slowed. The United States, buoyed by sizeable tax cuts and a considerable increase in government spending, was the obvious outlier when it registered above-trend growth in the first quarter, while some of its developed market peers, notably Japan and the Eurozone, struggled to muster productivity gains. During his 2016 election campaign, Donald Trump promised voters a return to economic growth of 4% ahead of US inflation, and it seems that the...

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Economic & Market Overview – July 2018

Global The trade war between the United States and its trading partners (mainly China and the European Union) has escalated in recent weeks and has been dominating headlines around the world. It has also caused increased volatility in global markets as investors try to digest the effect of the tariffs announced by the various role players on company valuations. In our commentary at the end of this month’s newsletter, we will take a closer look at how this has unfolded so far and what it could mean for investors. Most economic indicators show that the global economy is still in an expansionary...

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Economic & Market Overview – June 2018

Global The United States economy is well placed to continue its expansion with acceleration in growth possible over the rest of the year. Consumer spending appears underpinned by the strong labour market and solid medium-term gains in housing and stocks and it could pick up after a somewhat subdued first quarter. There are some headwinds, notably the recent rise in energy prices, but these may be offset by the potential stimulus from the package of tax cuts, whose effects could become visible later in the year. There are also encouraging signs that the Federal Reserve seems willing to look...

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